FROG

Executive Summary

Cloud + AI Inflection, Premium Multiple, Near 52-Week High

JFrog (FROG) trades at $79.48, essentially at its 52-week high of $79.87 after a near-doubling over the past year. Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $154.0M, +26% YoY, led by cloud revenue of $78.9M, +50% YoY — now ~51% of total. Net dollar retention re-accelerated to 120% (from 116%), $1M+ ARR customers grew 48% to 80, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.27 beat. Free cash flow was $37.3M with $741M cash and a new $300M buyback. The bull case rests on JFrog as the system of record for AI artifacts — NVIDIA NIM, JFrog ML, AI Catalog, security cross-sell. The swing factor is valuation: ~12-15x forward sales against guided ~18.5% FY26 growth, with the stock priced for continued execution. Street is Buy with an average target near $80-86.

Fundamentals

Q1 2026 Snapshot — Revenue +26% YoY with cloud +50%, NDR re-accelerating to 120%, and AI/security cross-sell broadening the platform.

Revenue (Q1'26)

$154.0M

+26% YoY · beat consensus

Cloud Revenue

$78.9M

+50% YoY · ~51% of total

Net Dollar Retention

120%

Up from 116% · floor raised to 118%

$1M+ ARR Customers

+48% YoY · $100k+ at 1,225

Non-GAAP EPS

$0.27

Op income $32.9M · ~21% op margin

Free Cash Flow

$37.3M

Op cash flow $38.4M

Cash & Investments

$741M

$300M buyback authorized

Forward P/S

~12-15x

vs ~18.5% FY26 rev growth

Quarterly Revenue Trend

$127.2M

Q2'25

$136.9M

Q3'25

$145.0M

Q4'25

$154.0M

Q1'26

Growth Engine

Cloud Migration and AI Artifact Management Driving the Next Leg

+50%

Cloud Revenue Growth

Cloud now ~51% of total revenue

120%

Net Dollar Retention

Re-accelerated from 116% prior year

+48%

$1M+ ARR Customer Growth

80 customers · platform land-and-expand

Aug 2025

Q2 2025: Revenue $127.2M (+23%)

Cloud $57.1M (+45%); non-GAAP EPS $0.18 beat $0.16; stock surged on accelerating cloud and security attach.

Nov 2025

Q3 2025: Revenue $136.9M (+26%)

Cloud $63.4M (+50%); non-GAAP EPS $0.22; growth re-accelerating as Enterprise+ and security/MLOps expand.

Feb 2026

Q4 2025 + FY2025

Q4 revenue ~$145M (+25%), EPS $0.22 beat. FY25 revenue $531.8M (+24%), cloud $243.3M (+45%), NDR 119%.

May 7, 2026

Q1 2026: Revenue $154.0M (+26%)

Cloud $78.9M (+50%), NDR 120%, $1M+ ARR customers +48% to 80, EPS $0.27 beat; FY26 guide $628-632M, EPS $0.93-0.97; $300M buyback.

May 2026

AI & Analyst Resets

NVIDIA NIM, JFrog ML, AI Catalog and Cursor integration deepen AI artifact moat. KeyBanc $86, D.A. Davidson $90, Barclays $75 post-print; stock near 52-week high.

Earnings & Signals

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

FY+1 EPS Consensus$0.95 (FY2026e, guide $0.93-0.97)

FY+2 EPS Consensus$1.15 (FY2027e)

PEG Ration/a (growth-stage; ~12-15x sales)

Forward P/E~84x (non-GAAP FY26e)

EPS Revisions (90d)↑11 ↓3 (Net upward — estimates and price targets revised higher into and after the Q1'26 beat and FY26 guidance raise.)

Guidance AccuracyStrong — JFrog has consistently beaten its non-GAAP EPS and revenue guidance, and raised its FY26 net-dollar-retention floor to 118%.

Earnings Surprise Track Record

Q2'25 Est: $0.16 Act: $0.18 +12.5%

Q3'25 Est: $0.18 Act: $0.22 +22.2%

Q4'25 Est: $0.18 Act: $0.22 +22.2%

Q1'26 Est: $0.22 Act: $0.27 +22.7%

Beat RateBeat on non-GAAP EPS in 4 of last 4 quarters (revenue beat in all 4)

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Net Buying/SellingNet selling (VC/insider distributions)

Sell/Buy RatioSell-tilted

Neutral-to-Bearish

With insiders at ~20% and Scale Venture Partners at ~6.35%, trailing activity skews toward selling/distributions typical of a maturing post-IPO VC cap table. Largely mechanical, but one-way flow at 52-week highs is a mild sentiment headwind rather than a fundamental signal.

Peer Comparison

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors

Company	P/S	EV/Rev	Rev Growth	NRR
JFrog	~13x	~12x	+26%	120%
Datadog	~17x	~16x	+25%	~115%
GitLab	~9x	~8x	+27%	122%
HashiCorp	~8x	~7x	+15%	~110%

FROG trades at a mid-tier DevOps/SaaS multiple (~13x sales) — below high-flyer Datadog (~17x) but above GitLab (~9x) despite comparable ~25-27% growth and a higher 120% NDR. The premium is supported by accelerating cloud mix (+50%), rising NDR, and an emerging AI artifact moat; the risk is the stock sits at its 52-week high with FY26 guided growth decelerating to ~18.5%, leaving limited multiple cushion.

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
Bull Case	$105	Cloud sustains ~50% growth, security and MLOps cross-sell lift NDR above 120%, AI artifact management (NVIDIA NIM, JFrog ML, AI Catalog) becomes a durable second engine, and the platform re-rates as the system of record for AI/software supply chain.	30%
Base Case	$86	Revenue grows ~18-20% as guided with cloud mix steadily rising, NDR holds in the high-teens/low-120s, operating margin expands modestly, FCF compounds, and the ~12-15x sales multiple is broadly maintained.	50%
Bear Case	$58	Growth decelerates below the high-teens guide, cloud gross-margin drag persists, AI monetization underwhelms versus hype, and the premium multiple compresses amid a software-sector de-rating from a stock sitting at its 52-week high.	20%

Probability-Weighted Target: $86 (+8% from current price)

$86

Weighted

Bull $10530%

Base $8650%

Bear $5820%

Analyst Consensus

D.A. Davidson

$90

Buy / Raised

KeyBanc

$86

Overweight / Raised

Barclays

$75

Overweight / Raised

Street High

$90

Buy / Bullish

Buy consensus across ~18 analysts. Average 12-month target ~$80-86 implies modest upside from $79.48, with the high near $90 and low near $65. No Sell ratings; recent targets were raised post-Q1 (KeyBanc $86, D.A. Davidson $90).

Technical

Key Levels & Options Intelligence

S/RSupport & Resistance

52-Week High

$79.87

Current Price

$79.48

Resistance

$79.87

Support

$73.82

50-Day MA

$68.50

200-Day MA

$52.00

52-Week Low

$34.05

OptOptions & Sentiment

RSI (14-day): ~42 (neutral, cooling)
Trend vs MAs: Above 50/200-DMA · uptrend
Short Interest: ~4.4M sh · ~3.7-4.9% float
1-Year Return: ~+70% to +86%
Position vs 52W High: At highs (~99%)
Put/Call Tilt: Balanced · mild call interest
Implied Volatility: Elevated post-earnings
Options Volume Trend: Active around $70-90 strikes

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

!Risk Factors

Premium multiple at 52-week high: FROG trades ~13x forward sales essentially at its 52-week high while FY26 revenue growth is guided to decelerate to ~18.5% from 26% in Q1 — any execution slip leaves little multiple support after a ~70-86% one-year run.
AI monetization may lag the narrative: The bull case leans on AI artifact management (NVIDIA NIM, JFrog ML, AI Catalog). If enterprise AI/ML model governance adoption monetizes slower than hyped, the growth re-acceleration thesis weakens.
Competitive pressure from DevOps platforms: GitLab, Datadog, GitHub/Microsoft and cloud-native registries compete across artifact management, security and DevSecOps, pressuring pricing and net-new logo growth as platforms consolidate.
Cloud gross-margin drag as mix shifts: Cloud is the fastest-growing segment (+50%) but carries lower gross margin than self-managed; a faster mix shift could pressure blended margins and the path to higher FCF conversion.
Modest absolute FCF base: FCF of ~$37M/quarter is healthy but small relative to a ~$9.6B market cap; the valuation is underpinned by growth and NDR rather than cash returns, raising sensitivity to any growth disappointment.
Concentrated VC/insider ownership overhang: Insiders own ~20% and Scale Venture Partners holds ~6.35%; large pre-arranged or VC distributions could create supply overhang, a sentiment headwind at elevated prices.

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Institutional ownership ~72-80%: Roughly 72-80% of shares are held by institutions, a deep professional holder base providing liquidity but also crowded-trade risk on any disappointment after a strong run.
Top holder — Scale Venture Partners: Scale Venture Partners IV LP is the largest single holder at ~7.6M shares (~6.35%), alongside index and growth-active managers across the cap table.
Elevated insider/founder ownership ~20%: Insiders own ~20.4% of the company, reflecting founder/co-founder (Shlomi Ben Haim and team) and early-investor stakes — strong alignment but also potential future supply.
New $300M buyback authorization: The board authorized up to $300M in share repurchases, signaling balance-sheet confidence and a modest offset to dilution from stock-based compensation.
Healthy net cash position: Cash, equivalents and investments of $741M against negligible debt give JFrog flexibility to fund M&A, AI/security R&D and buybacks without external capital.
Low short interest: Short interest is modest at ~3.7-4.9% of float (~4.4M shares), indicating limited bearish positioning despite the stock trading at its 52-week high.