Globalstar stands at a transformational inflection point following Amazon's announced $11.57 billion acquisition (approximately $90 per share), disclosed in April 2026. The deal positions Globalstar's satellite assets, spectrum licenses, and ground infrastructure as the backbone of Amazon Leo's direct-to-device (D2D) satellite network. Critically, Amazon and Apple have jointly agreed that Amazon Leo will continue powering Emergency SOS via satellite for iPhone and Apple Watch — preserving Globalstar's most strategically valuable partnership while expanding its addressable market under Amazon's capital umbrella.
Financially, Globalstar delivered record FY2025 revenue of $273M (+9% YoY) with a robust 50% Adjusted EBITDA margin and $171.5M in adjusted free cash flow. Q1 2026 continued the momentum with $70.1M revenue (+17% YoY) and operating income turning positive at $8.2M. However, GAAP EPS remains negative at –$0.16 in Q1 2026 due to non-cash charges and constellation investment costs. Analysts project FY2027 as the EPS inflection year at $0.10, supported by C-3 satellite launches and expanding IoT subscriber economics (ARPU rising to $4.39).
With the stock trading near the $90 offer price, the risk/reward is now dominated by merger completion probability rather than standalone fundamentals. The ~$7.55 spread to the deal price reflects residual regulatory and completion risk (FCC/DOJ review). We rate GSAT HOLD with a $88.45 weighted target — limited upside to deal close, but significant downside if the merger fails.
| Company | P/S (TTM) | EV/Revenue | Rev Growth (YoY) | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Globalstar | 34.3x | 34.4x | +11.5% | 64.2% |
| AST SpaceMobile | ~310x | N/M | +112% | ~26% |
| Iridium | 2.0x | 3.9x | +2% | 71.3% |
| Viasat | 1.4x | 2.4x | +5.5% | 33.3% |
| Scenario | Price Target | Assumptions | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | $95 | Amazon deal closes above $90/share with favorable regulatory approval; Amazon Leo integration accelerates D2D satellite revenue; Apple partnership deepens; Band n53 spectrum monetization gains traction internationally | 55% |
| Base Case | $88 | Amazon acquisition closes as proposed at $90/share in 2027; C-3 constellation launches proceed on schedule; steady revenue growth of 10-16% annually through transition period | 30% |
| Bear Case | $55 | Amazon merger faces regulatory challenge or renegotiation at lower terms; satellite launch delays push C-3 to 2028; Apple diversifies satellite partners; macro headwinds compress sector valuations | 15% |