PSQL

Executive Summary

Real science, real backlog. But February 2027 brings an unlock and a likely convertible reset.

Pasqal is one of only two listed neutral-atom pure plays, and unlike most of the quantum group it already installs systems on customer sites. FY2025 revenue rose to €16.5M, including €7.5M of QPU sales, and the company reports €70.4M of booked and awarded business. But the headline cash of ~€312.9M is almost matched by $312.5M of 10% convertible bonds. Those bonds were sold at a 20% discount, and their conversion price is likely to reset from $12.00 to the $7.80 floor in late February 2027. That is the same week the lock-ups expire on a resale registration of 286.7M shares, more than the 212.3M outstanding. H1 2026 revenue grew only +14% to €4.9M. At about 70x trailing EV/revenue the stock is not cheap even after falling −74% from its high. The sell side is unanimous: 4 Buys, with targets of $15–$20. We think the supply calendar matters more until the February 2027 reset and unlock have passed.

Key Metrics

Small revenue base, cash largely matched by convertible debt — IFRS figures in EUR from SEC 6-K/F-1. Market data as of the Oct 12, 2026 close. EUR/USD 1.119.

Share Price

$6.40

52w range $5.90–$24.69 · −74.1% from high

Market Cap

$1.36B

212.3M issued shares (20-F) · computed, not diluted

Net Cash (pro forma)

≈ $25M

~€312.9M cash (≈$350M), less $312.5M convertible face and ~€10M other borrowings. Computed.

EV / LTM Revenue

≈ 70x

EV ≈ $1.33B on LTM revenue €17.1M (≈$19M). Computed.

FY2025 Revenue

€16.5M

vs €3.5M FY2024 (+369%) · incl. €7.5M QPU sales

H1 2026 Revenue

€4.9M

+14% y/y · QPU services €3.9M (+34%) · cryostats €0.9M (−31%)

H1 2026 Operating Loss

€59.2M

Incl. €27.3M SBC + €10.2M deal costs · operating cash burn €25.2M

Booked & Awarded

€70.4M

Jun 30, 2026 · firm order book €36.8M (€12.5M in H2 2026)

Half-Year Revenue (€M, IFRS)

€4.3M

H1 2025

€12.2M

H2 2025

€4.9M

H1 2026

Growth Drivers

From analog QPUs on customer sites to a fault-tolerant roadmap

€70.4M

Booked & awarded business

At Jun 30, 2026 · ~4.3x FY2025 revenue · includes grants and tax credits

+34%

QPU-related services growth (H1 2026)

€3.9M · offset by a −31% decline in cryostat sales

1,024

Defect-free atom register

Doubled from 506 · 140-qubit system delivered for Leonardo · 200-qubit system live in KSA

Oct 21, 2026

Goldman Sachs Disruptive Tech Symposium

First major investor presentation since the H1 print and the PROQCIMA exit.

Late 2026–H1 2027

Civil FTQC funding replaces PROQCIMA

SGPI/DGE invited a neutral-atom FTQC R&D proposal after the Sep 28 defense-program exit. No size has been disclosed.

~Feb 23, 2027

Lock-up expiry + convertible reset

The 180-day lock-up ends. The convertible conversion price and warrant strike reset to the higher of the 20-day VWAP and $7.80. This is the key supply event.

H1 2027

FY2026 results + Pasqal Arabia deployments

First full year as a public company. StoneX expects FY2026 revenue above €16.5M on €12.5M of H2 scheduled orders. Watch for the first orders from the Saudi JV.

2027 → 2029/30

XPRIZE final · Vela 200+ qubits · ~200 logical qubits

XPRIZE Quantum Applications results in 2027. The fault-tolerance target has slipped from 2028 to 2029–2030 (secondary sources).

Earnings & Signals

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

FY+1 EPS Consensusn/a — no reliable consensus (aggregator data inconsistent)

FY+2 EPS Consensusn/a

PEG Ration/a (loss-making)

Forward P/En/m

EPS Revisions (90d)↑n/a ↓n/a (All coverage initiated Sep 9–Oct 6, 2026)

Guidance Accuracyn/a. No numeric guidance has been issued yet.

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Net Buying/SellingNo open-market trades. All Form 4s (Aug 27–Sep 3) are merger-related (codes A/J/P).

Sell/Buy Ratio0 sells / 0 open-market buys

Neutral. These were ownership changes from the combination, not trading decisions. Insiders are locked up until ~Feb 23, 2027.

Bpifrance bought $10M of the convertible bonds plus 1.30M warrants at closing. Co-founder Reymond holds 22.2M shares. The CEO's BSPCEs vest monthly through 2028.

Peer Comparison

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors

Company	P/E (fwd)	EV/Rev	Rev Growth	Gross Margin
Pasqal Holding	n/m	≈70x	+14% H1'26	n/d
IonQ	n/m	50.1x	+371% TTM	30.9%
Rigetti Computing	n/m	302x	+68% TTM	34.6%
D-Wave Quantum	n/m	372x	−44% TTM	64.2%
Quantum Computing Inc.	n/m	64.9x	tiny base	−18.9%

No listed quantum company has meaningful earnings. On EV/revenue, PSQL at about 70x (convertible debt included) trades above IonQ (50x), the scale leader with $246M of TTM revenue, and below Rigetti and D-Wave. Its H1 2026 growth of +14% is the weakest in the group apart from D-Wave. Peer data are from StockAnalysis as of the Oct 12, 2026 close.

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
Backlog converts + clean February	$10	FY2027 revenue reaches about $40M on Saudi JV orders and a sizeable civil FTQC award. The sector stays strong, the stock holds above $7.80 into the reset, and the unlock is absorbed. The market pays ~60x forward revenue (≈$2.4B EV). Bonds convert, so the debt drops away, but the diluted count rises to ~335M.	25%
Slow growth, overhang digested	$5.50	FY2026 revenue is about €17–18M and FY2027 about $34M. The conversion price resets to $7.80, and the bonds stay out of the money and remain debt (net cash ≈ 0). The market pays 35x forward revenue (≈$1.2B EV) on ~227M effective shares.	45%
Unlock + reset spiral	$3	The February 2027 unlock lands on a thin float while the bonds reset to the floor and short sellers hedge the conversion. Revenue disappoints at about $25M, the multiple compresses to 20x, and the $31M a year cash coupon speeds up the burn.	30%

Probability-Weighted Target: $5.88 (≈-8% vs $6.40. The skew turns positive only after February 2027.)

$5.88

Weighted

Bull $1025%

Base $5.5045%

Bear $330%

Analyst Consensus

Roth Capital

$20.00

Buy, coverage assumed Sep 9, 2026 (Street high)

Needham & Co.

$16.00

Initiated at Buy, Sep 30, 2026

Canaccord Genuity

$16.00

Buy reiterated, late Sep 2026

StoneX

$15.00

Initiated at Buy, Oct 6, 2026 (Street low)

4 Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell — The consensus is Moderate Buy with an average target of about $17 ($15–$20). The stock has fallen through every initiation, and all coverage is less than six weeks old.

Technical

Key Levels & Options Intelligence

S/RSupport & Resistance

52-Week High (Aug 31 intraday)

$24.69

Lock-up early release / initial conversion price

$12.00

Warrant strike

$11.50

50-Day MA

$9.10

Convertible reset floor

$7.80

Current Price

$6.40

52-Week Low (Oct 2 intraday)

$5.90

OptOptions & Sentiment

Short interest: 312K shares (from 360K)
Short % of shares out: 0.15%
Days to cover: 0.33
Avg volume (20d): 848K
Listed options: None yet (no IV / put-call)
Warrants (PSQLW): 17.3M @ $11.50 · deep OTM
RSI(14): 39.5

Conviction Analysis

Systematic Conviction Score: 38/100 (Low)

Analyst Alignment

30%

FCF Visibility

25%

Catalyst Clarity

20%

Valuation Safety

15%

Mgmt Quality

10%

Weighted 0.30/0.25/0.20/0.15/0.10, the score is 38 (Low). Analyst alignment is high on paper (4 Buys), but we haircut it to 55 because coverage is new and deal-adjacent and the stock has fallen through every target. FCF visibility is low: there is no guidance, systems revenue is lumpy and the coupon is $31M a year. The only dated catalyst is negative (the Feb 2027 unlock and reset). Valuation offers little safety at about 70x EV/revenue once the convertible is counted as debt.

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Quantonation 11.5% · Investiqo 5.8%: Schedule 13Gs dated Oct 7, 2026. Legacy holders, locked up.
Bpifrance / CDC 11.4%: 13D filed Sep 3, 2026. Board seat right, plus a $10M convertible purchase and 1.30M warrants.
Runa 8.9% · Inflection Point 7.0% · EIC Fund 6.8% · Temasek 5.6%: Per the 424B3 table. Inflection Point's stake is mostly convertible and warrant exposure.
Insiders 18.7%: 11 directors and officers. Co-founder Reymond holds 22.2M shares. Nobel laureate Alain Aspect holds 0.97M.
90.6% SPAC redemptions: 26.0M of 28.75M Bleichroeder public shares redeemed, leaving ~$27.7M in trust at close. The vendor float of 198M overstates the tradable float.
13F coverage ≈ 0%: The stock listed too recently to appear in quarterly 13F filings, so institutional demand is still unknown.

Risk Heatmap

Quantified Risk Assessment

Severity Risk Factor Prob. PT Impact

High Resale overhang + lock-up expiry (~Feb 23, 2027)

The 424B3 registers up to 286.7M shares for resale, more than the 212.3M outstanding. That includes 56.3M convertible shares (at $7.80, with PIK) and 50.1M warrant shares. With 90.6% of SPAC shares redeemed, the real float is thin.

60% -25%

High Convertible reset to the $7.80 floor

$312.5M face, 20% OID, 10% cash or 12% PIK coupon. The conversion price and the 32.55M warrants reset at six months to the higher of VWAP and $7.80, with down-round protection.

75% -20%

Medium Rich multiple on a small revenue base

About 70x LTM EV/revenue against +14% H1 growth. A risk-off move in speculative quantum names would compress it.

45% -20%

Medium PROQCIMA exit / French-state friction

Pasqal left the defense program on Sep 28, 2026. A report that this was forced on sovereignty grounds is unverified (La Tribune via forum). The French state holds governance vetoes over core hardware.

40% -10%

Medium Lumpy system sales

Revenue depends on a few large QPU deliveries (e.g. Aramco). H1 2026 had zero QPU sales, and a slip would break the backlog conversion story.

40% -15%

Medium Roadmap slippage

The fault-tolerance target moved from 2028 to 2029–2030, and logical-qubit scaling is still unproven at commercial scale.

35% -15%

Recommendation

Summary

Rating

HOLD

Conviction

Low

Price Target

Timeframe

12 months (re-assess after the Feb 2027 reset)

Upside

-6%

Position Size

0–0.5% (speculative sleeve only)

Entry Strategy

Tranche 1 — 0% now

Wait

Do not buy ahead of the ~Feb 23, 2027 unlock and convertible reset. Supply will hit a thin float.

Tranche 2 — 40%

≤ $4.50 or post-unlock base

Buy once the unlock selling is absorbed and the conversion price has set, ideally near ~20x forward EV/revenue.

Tranche 3 — 60%

Reclaim $7.80

Add only on a close above the convertible floor (bonds then become equity-like) plus a named Saudi JV order or civil FTQC award.

1-Year Price & Key Levels