QTEX

Executive Summary

Real progress, priced in twice — and paid for in shares

QTREX Quantum (QTEX) is betting its additively manufactured electronics (AME) platform on one of quantum computing's hardest bottlenecks: getting thousands of signal lines into a dilution cryostat. Since our August SELL the story has improved. H1 2026 revenue rose to $1.55M (+438%) at a 61% gross margin, and on Oct 1 the company said an unnamed top-five quantum company measured >100 dB isolation at 20 mK, with a binding agreement 'being finalized'. The stock has more than priced that in, rising 2.3× from $0.68 to a $1.87 close in seven sessions on no other news. The bill is in the share count: ~67M shares vs 35.9M in January (+87%), which makes the true market cap ≈$106M, not the $57M implied by the stale cover-page count. Add in-the-money $0.70/$1.10 warrants, 8.4M RSUs and a going-concern note. Pro forma cash of ~$19.9M funds roughly 18–24 months, but every raise this year priced at $0.70–$1.50. SELL, $1.35 target — the catalyst is real, but a strong tape after a binary event is when this company has historically issued stock.

Balance Sheet & Dilution

Raises fund the runway, and each one shrinks existing holders' share — H1 2026 6-K (Sep 24, 2026) and Aug 2026 424B5; price $1.58 (Oct 12, 2026 close). Q3 not reported (semi-annual filer).

H1 2026 Revenue

$1.55M

vs $289K in H1 2025 (+438%); AME owned only 86 days

H1 Gross Margin

61%

Gross profit $944K

H1 2026 Net Loss

$6.4M

$0.14/sh; opex $7.9M (R&D $4.76M); $86M accumulated deficit

Cash · Pro Forma

$10.7M · ~$19.9M

Jun 30, 2026, plus ~$9.2M net from the Aug 20 raise (estimate, before Q3 burn)

Operating Cash Burn

~$0.65M/mo

$3.9M operating cash use in H1; est. runway ~18–24 months

Shares Outstanding

~67M

55.4M at Jun 30 + 11.1M Aug offering; 35.9M on Jan 1 (+87%)

Market Cap (true vs stale)

≈$106M

$57M headline uses the stale 35.9M cover-page count; ~$88M EV net of pro forma cash

Dilution Overhang

~18M+

≈9.8M warrants at $0.70, ~3.75M at $1.10, 8.4M unvested RSUs — mostly in the money at $1.58

Semi-Annual Revenue — FPI (6-K), no quarterly XBRL in EDGAR

$0.29M

H1 2025

$1.55M

H1 2026

GROWTH STORY

From medtech shell to cryogenic I/O supplier: early revenue, big claims

+438%

H1 2026 revenue growth

$1.55M vs $289K (products $1.24M, services $313K) — 6-K, Sep 24, 2026

>100 dB

Channel isolation at 20 mK

Measured by an unnamed top-five quantum company per the Oct 1 6-K; the company claims it is 60 dB beyond the market leader

3 defense/lab users

AME deployments

U.S. government lab (Jul 6), Tier-1 U.S. defense customer, and a top-3 Israeli defense company (Sep 2) — all unnamed

APR 6, 2026

AME platform acquired from Nano Dimension

$2.0M cash at closing plus contingent consideration.

MAY 20, 2026

Rebrand to QTREX Quantum (QTEX)

Inspira Technologies starts trading as QTEX; joint evaluation with a top-five quantum company announced the next day.

AUG 20, 2026

$10M registered direct at $0.90

11.1M shares (A.G.P.); ~$9.2M net. Third raise of 2026, after Feb ($0.70 + warrants) and Jun ($1.50).

OCT 1, 2026

Independent 20 mK validation

>100 dB isolation; binding definitive agreement 'being finalized' and partner to be named 'within weeks'. Stock +175% in 7 sessions.

Q4 2026

Partner naming, 2027 outlook, national-lab formalization

Make-or-break disclosures. Watch for deal terms (paid supply vs evaluation) and any shelf takedown into strength.

Earnings & Signals

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

FY+1 EPS Consensusn/a — no consensus (H1 2026 actual: −$0.14/sh)

FY+2 EPS Consensusn/a

PEG Ration/a (loss-making)

Forward P/En/a (loss-making)

EPS Revisions (90d)↑n/a ↓n/a (n/a (no consensus))

Guidance Accuracyn/a — no numeric guidance; a 2027 financial outlook is promised in Q4 2026. Milestone promises have mostly been met on timing, but counterparties stay unnamed.

Earnings Surprise Track Record

H1 2026 (semi-annual FPI) Est: n/a Act: −$0.14 —

H2 2025 Est: −$0.20 Act: −$0.21 −5.0%

Beat Raten/a — semi-annual foreign private issuer with no consensus coverage

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Net Buying/SellingMixed. CEO Dagi Ben-Noon bought under the management purchase plan (168,894 sh at ~$0.71 reported Sep 28–29; 18,181 sh filed Oct 9), while aggregators show ~$399K of other insider sales over 6 months

Sell/Buy Ratio4 sales vs CEO plan buys (Quiver / Form 4); FPI disclosure is incomplete

Neutral. The CEO's plan buys near $0.71 are a modest positive signal but small against ~67M shares. Other insiders, the CFO among them, sold earlier in 2026, and no insider has bought at current levels.

CEO purchase-plan buys Sep 29 and Oct 9, 2026; CFO among earlier sellers; 8.38M unvested RSUs outstanding.

Peer Comparison

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors

Company	P/E (fwd)	EV/Rev	Rev Growth	Gross Margin
QTREX Quantum	n/m (loss)	~28× H1 run-rate (est.)	+438% (H1 YoY)	61%
IonQ	n/m (loss)	~90× fwd (Jun '26)	+755% (Q1 YoY)	n/a
Rigetti Computing	n/m (loss)	~1,111× TTM (Nov '25)	n/a	n/a
D-Wave Quantum	n/m (loss)	~335× TTM (Nov '25)	−81% (Q1 YoY)	n/a
Quantum Computing Inc.	n/m (loss)	~1,333× P/S (Jun '26)	n/a	n/a

Nobody in the group trades on earnings. On revenue, QTEX looks optically cheap next to the large-cap quantum names, but that discount reflects micro-cap scale, unnamed counterparties and serial dilution. Peer multiples are stale snapshots (Nov 2025–Jun 2026).

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
Named Partner + Funded Supply Deal	$2.75	The top-five partner is named and the definitive agreement carries paid volume. The 2027 outlook implies $8M+ revenue, and the stock re-rates toward ~25× forward revenue on ~75M diluted shares (≈$206M) despite a follow-on raise.	20%
Deal Lands, Then Dilution	$1.25	An agreement is signed but it is evaluation- or NRE-scale with no near-term volume. Management uses the strength to raise or warrants get exercised (~75M shares). Market cap ≈$94M, about 10× the annualized AME run-rate (~$6.5M) plus cash.	40%
No Agreement / Round-Trip	$0.75	The agreement slips or disappoints, the momentum crowd exits, and the stock round-trips toward the Aug $0.90 offering and pre-catalyst levels. Market cap ≈$56M on ~75M shares, roughly 3× pro forma cash. The $1 bid issue returns.	40%

Probability-Weighted Target: $1.35 (≈−15% vs $1.58 — the binary skew favors waiting)

$1.35

Weighted

Bull $2.7520%

Base $1.2540%

Bear $0.7540%

Analyst Consensus

Litchfield Hills Research

$2.00

Buy — initiated Jun 2025 on predecessor Inspira (IINN), before the quantum pivot; no update found

A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners

n/a

Placement agent on the Aug 20, 2026 $10M offering; no published rating found

AlphaSpread aggregate (unnamed)

$5.10

Single unverifiable 1-yr target ($5.05–$5.25), no firm named — treat as stale

TipRanks

n/a

No broker ratings in the last 3 months (Oct 2026); AI-model forecasts only

1 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell — Effectively uncovered. The only named rating is Litchfield Hills' pre-pivot Buy/$2.00 from June 2025, and aggregator targets ($5+) are unattributed and stale. There is no meaningful consensus for QTEX as a quantum company.

Technical

Key Levels & Options Intelligence

S/RSupport & Resistance

52-Week High

$3.85

Oct 9 spike close

$1.87

Current Price

$1.58

Nasdaq $1.00 bid line

$1.00

50-Day MA

$0.98

200-Day MA · Aug offering $0.90

$0.94

52-Week Low

$0.28

OptOptions & Sentiment

Listed options activity: Minimal / none (Jun 2026)
Implied volatility · Put/Call: n/a
Short interest (FINRA, Jul 15): 2.5M sh · ≈1 day to cover
Short trend: Down ~70% from 8.2M (May 29) — not a squeeze setup
Oct 12 volume: 11.9M sh (≈18% of ~67M shares)
RSI(14) · vs 50-DMA: 66.9 · +61%
Listed warrants: QTEXW trades separately

Conviction Analysis

Systematic Conviction Score: 23/100 (Low)

Analyst Alignment

30%

FCF Visibility

25%

Catalyst Clarity

20%

Valuation Safety

15%

Mgmt Quality

10%

Weighted 0.30/0.25/0.20/0.15/0.10, the score is 23 (Low), up from 17 in August. Catalyst clarity improved (validation in hand, agreement promised) and pro forma cash now covers ~18–24 months of burn. But there is no sell-side coverage, FCF is negative with a going-concern note, valuation rests on a ~$1.5M revenue base, and management has raised equity three times in 2026.

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Low, concentrated institutional base: Aggregators disagree: ~14.8% (Chartmill) vs ~5% institutions + ~10% hedge funds (Simply Wall St); about 18 13F filers.
Armistice exit, Citadel entry: Per Quiver, Armistice Capital (probable Feb-deal investor) closed its position in Q2 2026, while Citadel Advisors added ~1.4M shares. Both are trading-oriented holders.
Insider stake: Insiders hold ~10–15% (Chartmill 10.2%, Simply Wall St 14.5%). 8.38M unvested RSUs (1.27M pending shareholder approval) are a ~12% equity-comp overhang.
Retail-dominated float: With institutions plus insiders under ~30%, roughly 70%+ of the float is retail. Oct 12 volume of 11.9M shares was ~18% of shares outstanding.
Short interest declining: FINRA: 2.5M shares short at Jul 15, 2026, down from 8.2M at May 29, at ≈1 day to cover. A squeeze is not the driver.
Share count reset: ~67M shares after the Aug 2026 offering (55.4M at Jun 30 per the 6-K) vs 35.9M at Dec 31, 2025. The $57M headline market cap understates the true ≈$106M.

Risk Heatmap

Quantified Risk Assessment

Severity Risk Factor Prob. PT Impact

High Serial dilution and financing overhang

Three raises in 2026: Feb (4.0M shares + 2.79M pre-funded warrants at $0.70), Jun (~$10M at $1.50) and Aug (11.1M shares at $0.90). Shares went from 35.9M to ~67M (+87%). After a 2.3× rally, another raise is the base case.

70% -25%

High Going-concern qualification

The H1 2026 statements state that dependence on external funding 'raises a substantial doubt' about going concern, with an $86M accumulated deficit. Pro forma cash of ~$19.9M is the only cushion.

40% -40%

High Unproven pivot, unnamed counterparties

The Oct 1 validation, the 'binding agreement being finalized', the defense deployments and the yield claims all come from company releases with unnamed partners. Some coverage is disclosed paid promotion, and no quantum revenue contract terms have been disclosed.

50% -35%

Medium In-the-money warrant supply

≈9.8M warrants at $0.70 and ~3.75M at $1.10 are in the money at $1.58, plus 8.4M unvested RSUs. Exercises and resales add supply into any strength.

65% -12%

Medium Momentum unwind

The stock ran $0.68 → $1.87 in 7 sessions and has already given back 16%. It sits ~60% above both moving averages. Quantum micro-caps tend to retrace hype spikes fully if no definitive deal follows.

55% -30%

Low Nasdaq minimum-bid deficiency (third notice)

Notice dated Oct 5, 2026 for sub-$1 trading Aug 20–Oct 1; cure deadline Apr 3, 2027. Ten closes above $1 should cure it, but a fall back below $1 revives the risk of a reverse split.

20% -30%

Recommendation

Summary

Rating

SELL

Conviction

Low

Price Target

$1.35

Timeframe

12 mo

Upside

-15%

Position Size

0% — avoid; speculative accounts ≤0.5% max

Entry Strategy

Tranche 1 — 0% now

Avoid >$1.25

Do not chase. The stock is +61% over its 50-DMA with RSI near 67, the agreement terms are unknown, and the next raise likely comes into strength.

Tranche 2 — spec 40%

~$0.95

Speculative accounts only (≤0.5% total), near the 50/200-DMA and the Aug $0.90 offering price, and only if the definitive agreement has been filed by then.

Tranche 3 — spec 60%

Named deal + hold >$1.25

Complete only after a named top-five partner signs a paid supply agreement and the stock holds above $1.25 through any follow-on financing.

1-Year Price & Key Levels