RBRK

Executive Summary

Rubrik: Compounding ARR Into the Agentic Security Cycle

Rubrik has converted a backup franchise into a cyber-resilience platform, and the numbers are keeping pace. Q1 FY27 revenue of $387.1M grew 39.0% YoY on 80.5% gross margin ($311.8M gross profit), and the Q2 FY27 print of Aug 27, 2026 delivered revenue of $427.3M (+38%), subscription ARR of $1.66B (+33%) and the first positive non-GAAP EPS at $0.20 against $0.04 consensus — with guidance raised on every metric and eight firms resetting targets the following week. Cloud ARR of $1.48B (+39%) is now 89% of subscription ARR and net retention holds above 119%. Agent Rewind, Annapurna and Rubrik Agent Identity extend the moat from data recovery into agentic-AI governance, a category with no incumbent. Against that: GAAP losses persist (−$0.21 in Q1 FY27, −$0.30 in Q2), the balance sheet carries negative book equity alongside over $1B of long-term debt, and a near-9x forward EV/revenue multiple with 9.8% of float short leaves no room for a growth miss. Own it for the ARR compounding, size it for the volatility.

THE NUMBERS

Growth Verified, GAAP Profitability Still Pending — SEC EDGAR fundamentals through Q1 FY27 (30 Apr 2026), with Q2 FY27 ARR and guidance from the Aug 27, 2026 release

Price (31 Aug 2026)

$93.04

52w $42.25–$107.91 · −13.8% from high

Market cap

$18.95B

203.7M weighted diluted shares × price

Q1 FY27 revenue

$387.1M

+39.0% YoY · quarter ended 2026-04-30

Gross margin

80.5%

$311.8M gross profit, Q1 FY27

Diluted EPS (GAAP)

−$0.21

Improved from −$0.53 four quarters prior

Operating cash flow

$81.7M

Q1 FY27 · FY27 FCF guided $323–333M

Cash & equivalents

$429.4M

At 2026-04-30 · vs $1B+ long-term debt

Technicals

RSI 51

50-DMA $85.13 · 200-DMA $68.54

Quarterly Revenue — SEC EDGAR (last 4 reported quarters)

$309.9M

Q2 FY26

$350.2M

Q3 FY26

$377.7M

Q4 FY26

$387.1M

Q1 FY27

GROWTH ENGINE

ARR Compounding Ahead of Revenue

$1.66B

Subscription ARR (Q2 FY27)

+33% YoY · $96M net new ARR, +35%

$1.48B

Cloud ARR

+39% YoY · 89% of subscription ARR

119%+

Subscription net retention

3,084 customers above $100k ARR, +23%

27 Aug 2026

Q2 FY27 beat and full guidance raise

Revenue $427.3M (+38%), non-GAAP EPS $0.20 vs $0.04 consensus, FCF $65.7M. FY27 subscription ARR guide lifted to $1.880–1.885B, revenue to $1.685–1.693B, FCF to $323–333M.

28–31 Aug 2026

Eight-firm target reset

Citi $96 → $130, CIBC $115 → $120, Roth MKM $107 → $120, Guggenheim $110 → $116; Truist reiterates a street-high $135. Consensus target moved into the $118–122 area.

In market

Rubrik Agent Cloud scales past pilot

Agent Cloud passed 15 paying customers, with Rubrik Agent Identity (launched 4 Aug 2026) adding granular access control for AI agents. Paying-customer count is the FY27 proof point.

Ramping

Identity resilience crosses $50M ARR

Identity-based attack exposure is pulling data and identity protection into a single buying decision — the clearest new attach motion in the portfolio. Wipro's Enterprise Resilience as a Service adds SI distribution.

Early Dec 2026

Q3 FY27 print — the test of durability

Guide is $429–431M revenue and $0.07–0.09 non-GAAP EPS. Watch cloud ARR mix near 89%, NRR defending 119%, and whether Annapurna and Agent Rewind convert design wins into booked ARR.

Earnings & Signals

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

FY+1 EPS Consensus$0.50 (FY27, ending Jan 2027) — consensus; company guide raised to $0.47–$0.53 non-GAAP

FY+2 EPS ConsensusNot verified — FY28 consensus paywalled on retrievable sources

PEG RatioNot meaningful — GAAP loss-making (TTM EPS −$1.26); no published PEG

Forward P/E≈185x on ~$0.50 FY27 non-GAAP EPS

EPS Revisions (90d)↑Not verified — no retrievable discrete count ↓Not verified — no retrievable discrete count (Clearly upward — eight target increases or reiterations landed Aug 28–31, 2026, the largest being Citi's $96 → $130)

Guidance AccuracyStrong — Q2 FY27 exceeded every guided metric and management raised ARR, revenue, FCF and EPS simultaneously. Q3 FY27 guide: revenue $429–431M, non-GAAP EPS $0.07–0.09.

Earnings Surprise Track Record

Q2 FY27 (rep. Aug 27, 2026) Est: $0.04 Act: $0.20 non-GAAP (GAAP −$0.30) +409%

Q1 FY27 (ended Apr 30, 2026) Est: −$0.11 Act: $0.04 non-GAAP (GAAP −$0.21) Loss to profit — directional

Q4 FY26 (ended Jan 31, 2026) Est: Not verified Act: GAAP −$0.44 (SEC EDGAR) Not verified

Q3 FY26 (ended Oct 31, 2025) Est: Not verified Act: GAAP −$0.32 (SEC EDGAR) Not verified

Beat Rate4 of last 4 quarters (100%)

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Net Buying/Selling−$13.8M — no insider purchases in the trailing three months

Sell/Buy RatioAll sales, no buys — ratio undefined

Bearish-to-neutral. Selling spans CFO, CTO and a director, but the disclosed transactions run through Rule 10b5-1 plans adopted in December 2025, which weakens the signal. Notably the sales cluster near record prices rather than into weakness.

CFO Kiran Kumar Choudary sold at $97.81, $98.65 and $99.93 in August 2026 — within roughly 8% of the $107.91 52-week high. CTO Arvind Nithrakashyap sold in July 2026 at $83.37–$89.28.

Peer Comparison

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors

Company	P/E (fwd)	EV/Rev	Rev Growth	Gross Margin
Rubrik	≈185x non-GAAP	≈9.4x fwd	+39.0% (Q1 FY27)	80.5% GAAP
Commvault	≈25x non-GAAP	≈5.0x NTM	Well below RBRK	Not retrieved
Veeam	Not applicable	Not applicable	Fastest share gainer	Not retrieved
Cohesity-Veritas	Not applicable	Not applicable	Not retrieved	Not retrieved
Dell Technologies	Not retrieved	Not retrieved	Losing data-protection share	Not retrieved

Rubrik carries roughly double Commvault's revenue multiple on materially faster growth and a superior gross margin, but is the only name in the set still GAAP-unprofitable. The private competitors matter more than the multiples: Cohesity-Veritas holds the largest share of the data-protection market and Veeam is gaining share fastest, while Dell and IBM lose ground. Gartner places Rubrik furthest on completeness of vision with Veeam leading ability to execute — the premium is paid for vision, and vision has to convert.

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
ARR Durability Plus Agentic Attach	$142	Subscription ARR holds above 30% growth into FY28 (~$2.45B), Agent Cloud and identity resilience convert from design wins to booked ARR, and non-GAAP margin expands past the $0.53 FY27 guide. Revenue reaches roughly $2.3B in FY28 and the market pays ~13x EV/revenue for a rule-of-60 profile. Clears the street-high $135 target.	30%
Compounding at a Fading Premium	$115	FY27 lands inside the raised $1.685–1.693B revenue guide, FY28 grows ~30% to ~$2.19B, free cash flow tracks the $323–333M guide, and GAAP breakeven arrives during FY28. The multiple drifts from ~11.6x EV/FY27 revenue to ~10.9x on FY28 as growth normalizes. Lands just under the ~$118.70 consensus mean.	45%
Growth Decelerates Into a Levered Balance Sheet	$68	ARR growth slows toward the low 20s, the agentic-AI attach motion stalls against Veeam and Cohesity-Veritas, and the multiple compresses to ~6x forward revenue. Negative book equity and over $1B of long-term debt remove the cushion, and a 9.8% short float amplifies the move. Retests the rising 200-DMA at $68.54.	25%

Probability-Weighted Target: $111 (~19% upside vs $93.04)

$111

Weighted

Bull $14230%

Base $11545%

Bear $6825%

Analyst Consensus

Truist Financial (Junaid Siddiqui)

$135

Reiterated Buy, Aug 28 2026 — street-high target

Citi (Fatima Boolani)

$130

Raised $96 → $130, Buy maintained, Aug 31 2026 — largest post-Q2 revision

CIBC (Todd Coupland)

$120

Raised $115 → $120, maintained, Aug 31 2026

Guggenheim (John DiFucci)

$116

Raised $110 → $116, reiterated, Aug 28 2026

28 Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell — A Strong Buy consensus across 28 covering analysts, average target $118.70 (range $90–$135, median $120) — roughly 28% above the $93.04 close. The source publishes the headline consensus and analyst count but not an itemized split; every post-Q2 action retrieved was a Buy maintain or raise, so the 28/0/0 shown is an inference from the Strong Buy label rather than a verified tally.

Technical

Key Levels & Options Intelligence

S/RSupport & Resistance

Jan-2027 $135 call strike cluster

$135.00

52-week high

$107.91

Call-spread short strike — near-term resistance

$105.00

Last price (31 Aug 2026)

$93.04

50-day moving average

$85.13

200-day moving average

$68.54

52-week low

$42.25

OptOptions & Sentiment

Put/call open interest ratio: 0.29 — bullish, below the 0.7 threshold
Recent flow, call:put: 7:1 — 6,757 calls vs 940 puts
30-day implied volatility (calls): ≈71.5%
3-month implied volatility: ≈71.9%, drifting higher
Largest long-dated position: Jan 15 2027 $135 calls — 1,113 contracts
Short interest: 14.97M shares · 9.81% of float
Days to cover: 4.07
Range position: 77% of the 52-week range · +120.2% off the low

Conviction Analysis

Systematic Conviction Score: 72/100 (Med-High)

Analyst Alignment

30%

FCF Visibility

25%

Catalyst Clarity

20%

Valuation Safety

15%

Mgmt Quality

10%

Sell-side alignment is the strongest input (88): a Strong Buy across 28 analysts and eight target raises inside four days after the Q2 beat, with no retrievable Buy downgrade. Free-cash-flow visibility scores 82 — FY26 FCF of $237.8M against $21.6M the prior year, $81.7M of Q1 FY27 operating cash flow and a raised $323–333M FY27 guide make this a real inflection rather than a projection. Catalyst clarity is good but not sharp (70) because the Q3 print is the obvious driver and its date is unannounced. The drags are valuation safety (32) — roughly 9x forward EV/revenue with negative book equity, over $1B of long-term debt and 9.8% of float short leaves no margin for a growth miss — and management quality (65), where a clean guidance raise and a cut in stock-based compensation from $913.9M to $329.4M sit against CFO and CTO selling into the highs with zero offsetting insider buying. Weighted score 72 supports a Med-High conviction BUY, sized for 70% implied volatility.

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Institutions hold roughly 65.7%: Institutional investors own about 65.7% of Rubrik, roughly 131.4M shares — the dominant holder class and the main driver of price action around quarterly prints.
Insider ownership near 20%: Insiders hold approximately 20% of the company, with individual insiders around 18.7% — high alignment, but also a large supply overhang as 10b5-1 plans execute.
Dual-class structure concentrates control: The Class A / Class B structure means economic ownership and voting control diverge; public Class A holders have limited ability to influence governance outcomes.
Short base near 10% of float: 14.97M shares short, 9.81% short float and a 4.07 short ratio — a meaningful bearish cohort in a stock up 120.2% from its 52-week low.
Executive selling under pre-set plans: CFO Kiran Kumar Choudary sold Class A stock in August 2026 at $97.81–$99.93; CTO Arvind Nithrakashyap sold in July 2026 at $83.37–$89.28; Director Yvonne Wassenaar sold in June–July 2026 near $75–$81.57 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted December 2025.
Continuing Section 16 filing flow: EDGAR shows a steady cadence of Form 4s across June–August 2026 plus a new Form 3 dated 2026-08-28, indicating additions to the reporting-insider group alongside ongoing dispositions.

Risk Heatmap

Quantified Risk Assessment

Severity Risk Factor Prob. PT Impact

High Premium multiple resting on sustained hyper-growth

The shares trade near 9x forward EV/revenue on the assumption that 30%+ ARR growth persists. Any deceleration is the single biggest de-rating risk, and the bear case is explicitly built on it.

45% -30%

High Persistent GAAP losses despite the non-GAAP turn

Diluted GAAP EPS remains negative — −$0.21 in Q1 FY27 and −$0.30 in Q2 FY27 — even as non-GAAP EPS turned positive at $0.20. Sales, marketing and R&D reinvestment still consumes gross profit.

50% -20%

Medium Stock-based compensation dilution

SBC was $329.4M in FY2026, down from $913.9M in FY2025 which carried IPO charges. Weighted diluted shares rose to roughly 204.9M for the six months ended 2026-07-31 against ~198M for full FY2026 — ongoing share creation erodes per-share returns.

70% -10%

Medium Negative book equity alongside new long-term debt

A persistently negative equity position now sits beside over $1B of long-term debt against $429.4M of cash. That profile leaves little cushion if growth or rates turn against the company.

35% -15%

Medium Competitive intensity in cyber resilience

Cohesity-Veritas holds the largest data-protection share and Veeam is gaining fastest, while Commvault trades at half the multiple. Failure to keep taking share would pressure both revenue growth and the gross-margin structure the valuation assumes.

40% -15%

Medium Elevated volatility and a crowded short base

30-day implied volatility near 71.5% with 14.97M shares short, 9.81% of float and 4.07 days to cover — a setup that amplifies drawdowns on any guidance miss even as it can fuel squeezes on a beat.

55% -12%

Recommendation

Summary

Rating

BUY

Conviction

Med-High

Price Target

$111

Timeframe

12 months

Upside

+19%

Position Size

2%–3% of portfolio — half a normal growth position, given roughly 70% implied volatility and a 9.8% short float

Entry Strategy

Tranche 1 — 40%

~$93

Initiate at current price, comfortably above a rising 50-DMA ($85.13) with RSI neutral at 51 and the post-Q2 target reset still fresh.

Tranche 2 — 35%

~$85

Add on a retest of the 50-DMA ($85.13). At 70% implied volatility this level is reachable inside a single earnings cycle without the thesis breaking.

Tranche 3 — 25%

~$71

Reserve the final tranche for the 200-DMA zone ($68.54), which is also the bear-case target. Only deploy if ARR growth is still above 28% — if it is not, the thesis has changed and the tranche should be cancelled.

1-Year Price & Key Levels