RBRK

Executive Summary

Best fundamentals in the coverage, fully priced after a no-news 12% day

Rubrik's July quarter was the cleanest print in our coverage: Subscription ARR $1.66B, up 33%, revenue $427.3M, up 38%, non-GAAP EPS of $0.20 against a $0.04 consensus, free cash flow of $65.7M, and every full-year metric raised. The FY27 guide now calls for $1.88B of Subscription ARR (about +29%), $1.69B of revenue and $323–333M of free cash flow, and 28 of 29 analysts rate it Buy with an average target of $113. Nothing in the thesis has weakened since our Sep 1 note. The price has. The stock is up 130% from its April low and rose 12% today to $97.38 on volume with no company news we could find; the nearest items are a Wedbush initiation on Sep 11 and a Goldman conference appearance the same day. At about $19.6B of enterprise value the shares trade 11.6x the FY27 revenue guide and about 60x guided free cash flow, GAAP losses ran $103.6M in the first half with $174M of stock-based compensation, book equity is negative $499M against $1.13B of converts, and four insiders sold about $12M under pre-set plans since mid-July with no buying. Our fair value of about $107 gives 10% upside, which is inside the noise for a stock with 54% implied volatility. We move to HOLD from BUY on price, not on fundamentals, and would re-enter at the 50-day average near $88, where the same thesis buys 20% more.

Key metrics

A 33% ARR grower that just turned free-cash-flow positive at scale — Q2 FY27 (quarter ended Jul 31, 2026) per the 8-K exhibit of Aug 27, 2026 and the 10-Q filed Sep 1 (SEC EDGAR); price and technicals from Yahoo Finance, Sep 14, 2026 at 12:06 ET. Market cap, net cash and enterprise value are COMPUTED on the 207.3M shares on the 10-Q cover.

Share price

$97.38

+12% today from the $86.65 Sep 11 close, cause not sourced · 52w $42.25–$107.91 · −9.8% from high · RSI(14) 56

Subscription ARR

$1.66B

+33% YoY at Jul 31, 2026; net new ARR +35%; Cloud ARR $1.48B, +39% (company-stated)

Q2 FY27 revenue

$427.3M

+38% YoY vs $309.9M (10-Q); subscription $407.2M, +37%; beat the $396.3M consensus

Q2 EPS

−$0.30 GAAP

Non-GAAP $0.20 on 226.8M diluted shares vs $0.04 consensus (company-stated); GAAP net loss $61.8M (10-Q)

Gross margin

78.4%

GAAP (81.0% non-GAAP), vs 79.5% a year ago; GAAP operating loss $71.9M, non-GAAP operating income $33.5M

Free cash flow

$65.7M

Q2; H1 operating cash flow $158.5M less $9.9M capex (10-Q) · FY27 guide raised to $323–333M

EV / FY27 revenue

11.6x

EV about $19.6B COMPUTED ($20.2B cap less $615M net cash) on the $1.69B guide · 10.4x the FY27 ARR guide · about 60x guided FCF

Balance sheet

$615M net cash

COMPUTED: $416M cash plus $1,331M securities less $1,133M of 0% converts due Jun 2030 (10-Q) · book equity −$499M · H1 SBC $174M

Quarterly Revenue — SEC EDGAR (10-Q / 10-K), fiscal year ends Jan 31

$350.2M

Q3 FY26

$377.7M

Q4 FY26

$387.1M

Q1 FY27

$427.3M

Q2 FY27

Growth story

Cyber resilience is becoming the recovery layer for the AI stack

$1.66B

Subscription ARR, Q2 FY27

+33% YoY with net new ARR +35%; FY27 guide $1.88–1.885B implies about 29% growth for the year and a second-half decel the Street already models (company-stated)

3,084

Customers above $100K ARR

+23% YoY; Cloud ARR is $1.48B, 89% of subscription ARR, growing 39%. The enterprise base is what makes the FCF guide credible

Agentic

Rubrik Agent Cloud, identity resilience, lakehouse

CrowdStrike partnership on agentic identity-attack resilience (Sep 1), Apache Iceberg lakehouse protection on AWS (Sep 8); CEO: early innings of the AI acceleration opportunity (company-stated)

Aug 27, 2026

Q2 FY27 beat and full guidance raise

Every guided metric raised: FY27 Subscription ARR to $1.88–1.885B, revenue to $1.685–1.693B, non-GAAP EPS to $0.47–0.53, FCF to $323–333M. Stock closed at its $107.02 high that day, then gave back 19% into Sep 11.

Aug 28 – Sep 11

Street target reset, Wedbush initiation

Citi $130, BTIG $125, CIBC $125, KeyBanc, Goldman, Scotiabank, Stephens and Roth $120, Barclays $115, Piper $114; Wedbush initiated at Outperform, $120, and added it to its Best Ideas List on Sep 10–11. Consensus target $113–119.

Sep 14, 2026

+12% on no identifiable news

Shares moved from $86.65 to $97.38 in a $89.20–98.57 range on 2.2M shares by midday. No press release, filing or analyst note dated Sep 14 was found. Treat the move as flow until a cause appears; it is the reason the rating steps down today.

Early Dec 2026

Q3 FY27 print (MarketBeat estimates Dec 3)

Guide: revenue $429–431M, non-GAAP EPS $0.07–0.09. The test is whether net new ARR keeps growing 30%-plus while FCF margin holds near 20%; a beat-and-raise on the ARR line is what re-earns a BUY.

Mar 2027

Q4 FY27 and the FY28 guide

Consensus FY28 EPS growth of about 52% (StockAnalysis) and our 24% revenue assumption need an ARR guide near $2.3B. Also watch dilution: guided weighted shares rise from 226.8M to about 230M by Q3.

Earnings & Signals

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

FY+1 EPS Consensus$0.50 non-GAAP (FY27, Jan 2027; StockAnalysis consensus) vs the company guide of $0.47–$0.53. GAAP EPS is negative (H1 FY27 net loss $103.6M)

FY+2 EPS ConsensusAbout $0.76 non-GAAP (FY28) — COMPUTED from StockAnalysis's +52.5% growth on $0.50; the FY28 figure itself is behind a paywall

PEG Ration/m — GAAP loss-making; on non-GAAP EPS the forward P/E of about 195x against 50% growth gives a PEG near 4, which says nothing useful for a company valued on ARR and FCF

Forward P/EAbout 195x on $0.50 FY27 non-GAAP EPS at $97.38 (COMPUTED; StockAnalysis 201x). The relevant multiples are 11.6x FY27 revenue, 10.4x FY27 ARR and about 60x FY27 FCF

EPS Revisions (90d)↑10 or more target raises Aug 28 to Sep 11 (Citi, BTIG, CIBC, KeyBanc, Goldman, Scotiabank, Stephens, Roth, Barclays, Piper) plus the Wedbush initiation ↓None found (Firmly upward; FY27 consensus EPS moved to $0.50, the top of the pre-print range, after the guide went to $0.47–$0.53)

Guidance AccuracyStrong. Four consecutive quarters of non-GAAP beats, and the Aug 27 print raised every FY27 line at once: Subscription ARR, revenue, contribution margin, non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow. Q3 FY27 is guided to revenue of $429–431M and non-GAAP EPS of $0.07–0.09 on about 230M shares (company-stated). The pattern is conservative guides beaten by a wide margin

Earnings Surprise Track Record

Q3 FY26 (Oct 2025, reported Dec 4, 2025) Est: −$0.16 Act: $0.10 +$0.26

Q4 FY26 (Jan 2026, reported Mar 12, 2026) Est: −$0.11 Act: $0.04 +$0.15

Q1 FY27 (Apr 2026, reported Jun 4, 2026) Est: −$0.03 Act: $0.16 +$0.19

Q2 FY27 (Jul 2026, reported Aug 27, 2026) Est: $0.04 Act: $0.20 +$0.16

Beat Rate4 of 4 on non-GAAP EPS and 4 of 4 on revenue (MarketBeat consensus vs company-reported). Beats are shown in dollars because the estimates were negative. GAAP diluted EPS per SEC EDGAR: −$0.32, −$0.44, −$0.21, −$0.30.

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Net Buying/SellingNet selling of about 143K shares for about $12.1M since Jul 15, 2026; zero open-market purchases. Every Form 4 in the window was read from EDGAR

Sell/Buy Ratio143K sold : 0 bought. CTO Arvind Nithrakashyap about 76,920 shares ($6.5M, Aug 3–4 and Sep 8–9, $73.72–92.87); CFO Kiran Choudary 38,000 ($3.3M, Jul 15 and Aug 24, $80.15–99.93); director John Thompson 27,000 ($2.2M, Aug 3 and Sep 1); director Yvonne Wassenaar 1,442. All flagged Rule 10b5-1

Bearish to neutral. The sales are pre-scheduled and paired with RSU conversions, which weakens the signal, but they cluster at the highs: the CFO's Aug 24 block printed at $97.81–99.93, within 8% of the 52-week high and the day before the beat-and-raise. No insider has bought in the open market during a run from $42 to $107. The company does not repurchase stock; dilution runs through SBC and the converts.

CFO Choudary sold 10,000 shares at $97.81–99.93 on Aug 24, 2026 (Form 4 Aug 25). CTO Nithrakashyap sold about 26K shares at $89–92 on Sep 8–9 (Form 4 Sep 10). New director Russak-Aminoach filed a Form 3 on Aug 28 with a 10,304-RSU grant, no purchase.

Peer Comparison

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors

Company	P/E (fwd)	EV/Rev	Rev Growth	Gross Margin
Rubrik	≈195x non-GAAP	11.6x FY27 guide (11.3x TTM)	+38% (Q2 FY27)	78.4% GAAP / 81.0% non-GAAP
CrowdStrike	146.6x	38.5x TTM	TTM revenue $5.4B	75.2%
Zscaler	33.5x	7.52x TTM	16% 3-yr forecast	76.9%
Commvault	25.5x	4.68x TTM	11% 3-yr forecast	81.1%

Peer multiples from StockAnalysis statistics pages as of Sep 14, 2026; Rubrik multiples COMPUTED from SEC EDGAR figures and the company guide. Rubrik sits between Zscaler and CrowdStrike on sales multiples, which is where a 33% ARR grower with a 20% FCF margin belongs; Commvault, the closest product comparable, grows a third as fast at less than half the multiple. The premium over Commvault is earned on growth and cloud mix; the discount to CrowdStrike reflects GAAP losses, negative equity and a much shorter public record. Veeam and Cohesity-Veritas are private and not shown.

FAIR VALUE

Worth about $107 on three methods; the rating steps down because the price got there first — independent of where the stock trades

Method	Implied Value / Share	Weight	Basis
EV / Sales on FY28	$111	40%	FY28 (Jan 2028) revenue of about $2.09B, our +24% on the $1.69B FY27 guide, at 11x, which is where a 29–33% ARR grower with a 20% FCF margin sits between Zscaler (7.5x, mid-teens growth) and CrowdStrike (38.5x, platform premium). EV $23.0B plus about $0.9B of net cash after FY27 FCF, over about 215M diluted shares.
EV / Free cash flow on FY28	$98	30%	FY28 FCF of about $450M (21% margin, up from the 19–20% FY27 guide) at 45x = $20.3B, plus net cash, over 215M shares. This is the method that says the price already discounts the FCF ramp.
EV / Subscription ARR	$109	30%	FY27 ARR guide midpoint $1.88B at 12x = $22.6B, plus net cash, over 215M shares. 12x ARR is a premium to the sector median that the 35% net-new-ARR growth and 119%-plus retention justify for now.
Blended estimate	$107	100%	+10% vs. the $97.38 intraday price — inside the noise for a stock with 54% implied volatility

Reading it

The three methods bracket $98 to $111 and blend to about $107, ten percent above today's price. On Sep 1 the same framework gave $111 against a $93 price and supported a BUY; since then the fundamentals have not changed and the price has run 5% on the close and 12% intraday today without news. A 10% weighted upside on a stock that moves 12% in a session is not a BUY signal, it is a hold. The thesis stays intact: the re-entry point is the 50-day average near $88, where fair value is 22% away.

Shared inputs

Shares207.3M outstanding at Aug 24, 2026 (167.4M Class A plus 39.9M Class B at 20 votes each, 10-Q cover); 226.8M non-GAAP diluted in Q2; company guides about 228M for FY27 and 230M for Q3. We use 215M for per-share values as a midpoint between basic and fully diluted, ESTIMATE.

Net cash$615M COMPUTED: $416M cash plus $1,331M available-for-sale securities less $1,133M carrying value of the 0% convertible notes due Jun 2030 (10-Q). Book equity is −$499M because of accumulated losses and the converts.

Enterprise valueAbout $19.6B at $97.38 — 11.6x the FY27 revenue guide, 11.8x current Subscription ARR, about 60x the FY27 FCF guide (COMPUTED; StockAnalysis shows $19.59B and 11.3x trailing sales).

FY28 assumptions usedRevenue about $2.09B (+24%), FCF about $450M, ARR about $2.3B. Street FY28 EPS implied about $0.76 from StockAnalysis's +52.5% growth on $0.50 (COMPUTED).

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
ARR growth holds above 30%, FCF margin expands	$135	Net new ARR keeps compounding at 30%-plus on identity resilience and agent security, FY28 ARR reaches about $2.4B with FCF margin toward 25%, and the market pays 13x FY28 revenue. This is the Street high (Citi $130 to $135) and requires the Q3 and Q4 prints to beat and raise again.	30%
Guide met, growth decelerates to the mid-20s	$111	FY27 lands inside the raised guide, FY28 revenue grows about 24% with FCF of roughly $450M, and the multiple holds at 11x forward sales. Dilution runs at the guided pace (about 230M shares) rather than the 18% bears cite.	45%
Deceleration plus multiple compression	$68	Net new ARR growth slips toward 20% as Cohesity-Veritas, Commvault and Veeam press pricing, FCF is squeezed by shorter billing terms, and the stock re-rates to Zscaler's 7x sales on FY28 revenue of about $2.0B. That is roughly the 200-day average and where the stock traded in July.	25%

Probability-Weighted Target: $107 (+10% vs. $97.38)

$107

Weighted

Bull $13530%

Base $11145%

Bear $6825%

Analyst Consensus

Wedbush

$120

Initiated at Outperform and added to the Best Ideas List · Sep 10–11, 2026

Citigroup

$130

Raised from $96, Buy · Aug 28, 2026 — the largest post-print raise

BTIG

$125

Raised, Buy · Aug 28, 2026 (CIBC also to $125 from $110)

Scotiabank / Stephens / Roth / Goldman / KeyBanc

$120

Cluster of raises to $120 · Aug 28 – Sep 2026 (Scotiabank from $114, Stephens from $90, Roth from $107)

28 Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell — MarketBeat counts 29 analysts, 28 Buy and 1 Sell, consensus target $113.31 (range $80–$135); StockAnalysis has 28 analysts, all Buy or Strong Buy, average $118.70. Ten firms raised targets in the two weeks after the Aug 27 print and Wedbush initiated on Sep 11; no downgrade was found.

Technical

Key Levels & Options Intelligence

S/RSupport & Resistance

Street high target (Citi, BTIG-CIBC $125–135)

$135.00

52-week high (Aug 27, 2026; close $107.02)

$107.91

Resistance — post-print highs, $105 call strike

$105.00

Current price (Sep 14, +12% intraday)

$97.38

Sep 4 close, top of the pre-selloff range

$93.67

50-DMA — re-entry zone

$87.73

Sep 11 close, before today's gap

$86.65

July trading range / bear-case territory

$80.00

200-DMA

$69.48

52-week low (Apr 10, 2026 close $43.81)

$42.25

OptOptions & Sentiment

Short interest: 15.23M shares, 8.57% of float, +1.7% vs the prior period (MarketBeat, Aug 31 settlement); StockAnalysis shows 9.29% of float
Days to cover: 3.6 days on 3.74M average daily volume (MarketBeat)
Implied volatility (30d): 54.5% mean (calls 53.1%, puts 55.9%) vs 81.6% realised (AlphaQuery, Sep 11) — options were pricing less movement than the tape delivered, and today confirmed the tape
Put/call IV skew: 1.05 — puts carry a slight premium (AlphaQuery, Sep 11)
IV rank / put-call volume: Not sourced
Upcoming expiries and events: Sep 18 and Oct 16 monthlies; Jan 2027 LEAPs; Q3 FY27 print early Dec (unconfirmed)
Beta: 1.24 five-year (StockAnalysis) — understates a stock that has traded a $42–108 range in twelve months
Today's tape: $89.20–98.57 intraday range, 2.2M shares by 12:06 ET against a 3.7M daily average (Yahoo, StockAnalysis)

Conviction Analysis

Systematic Conviction Score: 69/100 (Med-High)

Analyst Alignment

30%

FCF Visibility

25%

Catalyst Clarity

20%

Valuation Safety

15%

Mgmt Quality

10%

Weighted 0.30 analyst, 0.25 FCF, 0.20 catalyst, 0.15 valuation, 0.10 management. Analyst alignment 88: 28 of 29 at Buy, ten raises and an initiation in two weeks, average target above ours. FCF visibility 80: H1 operating cash flow $158.5M, Q2 FCF $65.7M and a raised $323–333M FY27 guide make the inflection real, held back only by $174M of H1 stock comp. Catalyst clarity 60: the Q3 print is the only dated event and its date is unannounced, and today's 12% move has no identifiable cause. Valuation safety 28: 11.6x forward revenue, about 60x guided FCF, negative book equity and a 130% rally from the April low leave no cushion for a growth miss. Management 62: clean beat-and-raise execution and a strong partner roadmap, against 10b5-1 selling at the highs by the CFO and CTO with no buying. A score of 69 is Med-High: high confidence in the business, and the rating steps to HOLD because the price no longer offers a margin over fair value.

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Institutions hold 49–69%, insiders about 18%: StockAnalysis puts institutional ownership at 69.1% and insiders at 18.0% on a 163.8M-share float; MarketBeat shows 49.5% institutional. Over twelve months MarketBeat counts 344 institutional buyers ($3.84B of inflows) against 134 sellers ($1.44B), a net accumulation into the rally.
Dual-class control: 39.9M Class B shares carry 20 votes each against 167.4M Class A (10-Q cover, Aug 24, 2026), so founders and early holders retain majority voting control with about 19% of the economics. Public Class A holders cannot influence governance outcomes.
Top-holder detail thin this pass: StockAnalysis's holder page and CNN's data were unavailable, and MarketBeat's table carries a CalSTRS row (14.8M shares, +8,477%) that matches a data-error pattern seen on other tickers, so it was not relied on. Prior-session holders of record: First Trust, Wellington (added 49% in Aug), Bank of Nova Scotia, Atreides (cut 37% in May).
Short base 8.6–9.3% of float: 15.2M shares short, 3.6 days to cover, up 1.7% into the print (MarketBeat, Aug 31). A meaningful but not crowded bearish cohort; today's 12% move on 2.2M shares by midday is consistent with some covering.
Sell-side unanimity: 28 of 29 analysts at Buy with a $113–119 average target and a $135 high; Wedbush initiated at Outperform and added the name to its Best Ideas List on Sep 10–11. Unanimity is a positioning risk as much as a support.
Board addition: Rakefet Russak-Aminoach joined the board (Form 3 filed Aug 28, 2026; 10,304 RSUs granted Aug 26). No open-market purchase by any insider was found in the window.

Risk Heatmap

Quantified Risk Assessment

Severity Risk Factor Prob. PT Impact

High Premium multiple resting on sustained 30%-plus ARR growth

At 11.6x the FY27 revenue guide and about 60x guided FCF, the stock needs net new ARR to keep growing 30%-plus; the FY27 ARR guide already implies deceleration to about 29% for the year. A single quarter of net-new-ARR growth in the low 20s would take the multiple toward Zscaler's 7–8x, which is the bear case.

35% -25%

Medium GAAP losses, stock-based compensation and dilution

H1 FY27 GAAP net loss $103.6M with $174.4M of stock-based compensation (10-Q); book equity −$499M. Guided weighted shares rise from 226.8M to about 230M by Q3, and bears (Seeking Alpha) argue FCF is flattered by SBC and dilution could run near 18%. Non-GAAP profitability is real but GAAP profitability is not on the guide.

50% -10%

Medium Competitive intensity in cyber resilience

Cohesity's acquisition of Veritas, Commvault's Appranix and Clumio deals and Cloud Rewind, and Veeam's financing all point at the same enterprise buyers. Channel feedback still puts Rubrik first on brand and momentum, but pricing pressure or shorter billing terms would hit FCF before it hit ARR.

40% -12%

Medium Insider selling under 10b5-1 plans, no buying

Since mid-July: CTO Arvind Nithrakashyap about 77K shares for about $6.5M ($73.72–92.87), CFO Kiran Choudary about 38K for about $3.3M (up to $99.93 on Aug 24, the trading day before the print), director John Thompson about 27K for about $2.2M, director Yvonne Wassenaar a small amount; all flagged 10b5-1, zero purchases (Form 4s, SEC EDGAR). Mechanical, but the supply sits right at the highs.

60% -5%

Low Converts and negative book equity

$1.13B carrying value of 0% convertible notes due June 2030 against $1.75B of cash and securities. Net cash is positive today and FCF is growing, so this is a 2030 question, not a 2026 one; but any FCF stumble makes the negative equity and the 2030 wall the story.

20% -8%

Medium Volatility and unexplained moves

Realised volatility ran 82% over 30 days against 54% implied; the stock gave back 19% in the two weeks after its Aug 27 high and then rose 12% today without news. The dual-class structure (Class B at 20 votes) and an 18% insider stake mean public holders ride the volatility without influence over it.

50% -8%

Recommendation

Summary

Rating

HOLD

Conviction

Med-High

Price Target

$107

Timeframe

3–6 months — the early-December Q3 print is the next chance to re-earn the BUY

Upside

+10%

Position Size

2–3% of portfolio at full build; 0% added at current prices · size for 80% realised volatility

Entry Strategy

Tranche 1 — 0% (hold, do not chase)

$97.38 (today)

Existing holders keep the position; no adds into a 12% no-news day with 10% upside to fair value and 54% implied volatility. Trim only if the stock exceeds the $107.91 high without a fundamental catalyst.

Tranche 2 — 50% of an intended position

$88

The 50-day average and the pre-gap Sep 11 close. At $88 the stock is 10.5x the FY27 revenue guide and 22% below fair value; the thesis is unchanged and the rating reverts to BUY here.

Tranche 3 — 50%

$78

The July trading range, about 9x forward sales. A pullback here without a guide cut is the buy of the year in this name; if it comes with net-new-ARR growth below 25%, the position is capped at tranche 2 and reviewed.

1-Year Price & Key Levels