RBRK

Executive Summary

Investment Thesis

Rubrik delivered a transformational FY2026, growing total revenue 48% to $1.32B while swinging to near non-GAAP breakeven (-$0.01 EPS vs -$1.57 prior year). Free cash flow surged from $22M to $238M, demonstrating operating leverage. Subscription ARR reached $1.46B (+34% YoY) with NRR >120% and 2,805 customers at $100K+ ARR.

The stock has pulled back 39% from its 52-week high of $103 amid sector-wide software multiple compression and ARR growth deceleration (from 54% in Q1 to 34% by Q4). However, FY27 guidance of $1.60B revenue implies continued 21% growth, and the Agent Cloud launch targeting AI governance represents a significant TAM expansion catalyst.

At ~8.7x NTM EV/Revenue, RBRK trades at a meaningful discount to cyber peers CRWD and PANW. The 27 analyst Strong Buy consensus with a median target of $82 implies 31% upside. Key risks include growth deceleration, insider selling ($11.6M net in 90 days), and persistent GAAP losses. The June 4 Q1 FY27 earnings is the next major catalyst.

Key Financials

Performance Snapshot

FY26 Revenue

$1.32B

+48% YoY

Subscription ARR

$1.46B

+34% YoY (as of Jan 31, 2026)

FY27 Rev Guidance

$1.60B

$1.597B-$1.607B (+21% YoY)

GAAP Gross Margin

80.1%

Up from 70.0% FY25

Free Cash Flow (FY26)

$237.8M

Up from $21.6M in FY25 (11x)

Non-GAAP EPS (FY26)

-$0.01

Near breakeven vs -$1.57 FY25

EV/Revenue (NTM)

8.7x

On FY27 guided revenue of $1.60B

Net Retention Rate

>120%

Avg subscription dollar-based NRR

Quarterly Revenue Trend

Growth Drivers

Key Growth Catalysts

AI Agent Governance & Agent Cloud

Rubrik launched Agent Cloud (RAC) for Google Gemini in April 2026, introducing SAGE-powered semantic AI governance for autonomous agents. With Gartner forecasting 40% of enterprise apps will use AI agents by end-2026, this positions RBRK at the intersection of data security and AI infrastructure. First-mover advantage in agent governance could drive meaningful new ARR.

Cloud & SaaS Expansion

Google Cloud SQL resilience, Rackspace partnership, and expanded Microsoft 365 protection are broadening RBRK's addressable workloads. Subscription revenue grew 53% in FY26 to $1.26B, now representing 95% of total revenue. The shift from legacy backup to cloud-native data security continues to drive customer expansion and NRR >120%.

Profitability Inflection

FY26 marked the pivot: GAAP gross margin expanded 1,010bps to 80.1%, FCF reached $238M (18% margin), and non-GAAP EPS approached breakeven. FY27 guidance of $0.07-$0.27 non-GAAP EPS signals the first full year of non-GAAP profitability. Operating leverage should expand as subscription mix increases and R&D/S&M scale.

2026-03-12

Q4/FY26 Earnings

Revenue $377.7M (+46% YoY), EPS $0.04 beat vs -$0.28 est. Subscription ARR $1.46B. FY27 guidance issued: revenue $1.597B-$1.607B.

2026-04-22

Agent Cloud Launch

Launched Rubrik Agent Cloud for Google Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform with SAGE-powered AI governance, agent rewind, and Cloud SQL resilience.

2026-06-04

Q1 FY27 Earnings (Upcoming)

Expected after market close. Consensus revenue ~$365M. Key focus on Agent Cloud pipeline, ARR trajectory, and margin expansion.

2026-09-01

Q2 FY27 Earnings (Est.)

Estimated date. Will reveal early FY27 execution trends and potential guidance update. Watch for NRR and new customer metrics.

2027-01-31

FY27 End

Target: Subscription ARR $1.83B-$1.84B, Revenue $1.60B, non-GAAP EPS $0.07-$0.27. First full profitable fiscal year expected.

Company	price	marketCap	revenueGrowth	grossMargin	evRevenue	fcfMargin
Rubrik	62.47	12.86B	48%	80.1%	8.7x	18.0%
Palo Alto Networks	227.79	117.6B	15%	74.5%	10.5x	38%
CrowdStrike	591.5	151.3B	25%	75.3%	24.5x	33%
Fortinet	123.29	90.0B	12%	78.0%	12.0x	35%
Commvault	103.9	4.9B	19%	82.0%	4.1x	22%

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
bull	$110	FY27 subscription ARR reaccelerates to 35%+ as Agent Cloud / AI governance drives new enterprise logos and upsells. FCF margin expands to 20%+. Multiple re-rates to 12x NTM revenue as profitability inflects positively. NRR climbs above 125%.	30%
base	$80	RBRK executes in-line with FY27 guidance ($1.60B revenue, $0.07-$0.27 non-GAAP EPS). Subscription ARR growth moderates to 25-30%. FCF remains strong (~$300M). Valuation remains compressed at ~8-9x NTM revenue due to growth deceleration concerns.	50%
bear	$42	Growth decelerates sharply below 20% as large enterprises slow data security spending. Competitive displacement from PANW Cortex and CRWD Falcon Data Protection erodes NRR. Continued SBC dilution and negative GAAP profitability weigh on sentiment. Stock tests 52-week lows.	20%

Probability-Weighted Target: $80.60 (29.0%)

$80.60

Weighted

Bull $11030%

Base $8050%

Bear $4220%

Analyst Consensus

Deutsche Bank

Citi

Wolfe Research

KeyBanc

2 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

!Risk Factors

Growth Deceleration: ARR growth decelerated from 44% to 34% in FY26. If FY27 slows faster than guided (below 20%), the stock could re-rate to 6-7x revenue, implying $45-50 per share.
Competitive Displacement: PANW Cortex and CRWD Falcon expanding into data protection. These platform players have broader security suites and larger sales forces. CVLT remains a credible alternative at lower price points.
Software Sector Multiple Compression: Enterprise software multiples remain under pressure from rising rates and AI-driven disruption fears. Further sector de-rating would disproportionately impact high-growth, unprofitable names like RBRK.
Stock-Based Compensation & Dilution: Shares outstanding grew 27% in FY26. SBC remains the primary driver of GAAP losses. As pre-IPO lockups expire and equity vests, ongoing dilution could cap share price appreciation.
Insider Selling Sentiment: $11.6M net insider selling in 90 days with zero purchases. While primarily 10b5-1 driven, sustained selling without any buying sends a cautionary signal to market participants.
Execution Risk on New Products (Agent Cloud): Agent Cloud and AI governance are brand-new product categories. If enterprise adoption is slower than anticipated or competitors release comparable products, the growth catalyst may underwhelm.

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Vanguard Group: 14.6M (est.) shares | Institutional
BlackRock: 8.27M shares | Institutional
Bipul Sinha (CEO): 11.0M (est. Class A + B) shares | Insider / Founder
Lightspeed Venture Partners: ~24M (est., declining) shares | Venture / Pre-IPO
Asheem Chandna (Director): 3.09M shares | Insider / Director
Retail & Other: ~112M shares | Retail

Recommendation

Summary

Price

$62.47

Consensus

Strong Buy (27 analysts)

Target

$82 median / $90.64 mean

Upside

+45.1%

Next Catalyst

Q1 FY27 Earnings — June 4, 2026

Weighted PT

$80.60 (+29.0%)

Entry Strategy

Accumulate on Weakness ($55-$62)

Current price or pullback to $55-$58 range

Build a 50% position at current levels ($62.47) or on any pullback toward the $55 support zone. The stock is 39% below its 52-week high with consensus implying 45% upside. Set a stop-loss at $42 (52-week low) for a risk/reward of approximately 1:2.5.

Add Post-Q1 FY27 Earnings (June 4)

Positive Q1 FY27 earnings report on June 4, 2026

Add the remaining 30% position if Q1 FY27 earnings (June 4, 2026) show: (a) subscription ARR growth holding at 28%+, (b) Agent Cloud pipeline commentary is constructive, (c) non-GAAP EPS beats the -$0.23 consensus. A beat-and-raise would confirm the growth trajectory.

Complete Position on 200-DMA Reclaim

Price closes above $67.50 on 2x average volume for 3+ consecutive days

Allocate the final 20% if RBRK reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average ($67.50) with above-average volume. This technical confirmation would signal the recovery trend is sustainable and reduce the risk of a false breakout.

Investment Thesis

Performance Snapshot

Quarterly Revenue Trend

Key Growth Catalysts

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

Earnings Surprise Track Record

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors