RBRK

Executive Summary

Cyber-resilience leader that crossed into cash-flow positive while still compounding ARR at 30%+

Rubrik (RBRK) has quietly become the structural winner in cyber resilience and data security, and the model has flipped from cash-burning to self-funding. FY2026 (ended Jan 31, 2026) revenue grew 48% to $1.32B with $253M of free cash flow at a near-breakeven GAAP net result, and Q1 FY2027 (reported Jun 4, 2026) beat on every line: revenue +39% to $387.1M, subscription ARR +32% to $1.57B, non-GAAP gross margin 82.9%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 vs a −$0.03 consensus, prompting management to raise full-year guidance to $1.638–1.648B in revenue. Cloud ARR (+43%) is now 89% of subscription ARR, signaling the SaaS transition is nearly done. The sell side is effectively unanimous — roughly 25 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell, average target ~$95 — with Scotiabank, Cantor, Truist, KeyBanc and Baird all raising targets post-print. At $72.33, ~27% off the $99.75 high, RBRK trades around ~7.5x forward sales — reasonable for 30%+ ARR growth with FCF. Risks are real: heavy insider selling (~5.2M shares net over 18 months, zero buys), elevated short interest (~6–10% of float), GAAP losses on stock-comp, and a competitive field (Cohesity/Veritas, Veeam, Commvault). We initiate at BUY, Medium-High conviction.

FUNDAMENTAL METRICS

Durable 30%+ ARR growth, now self-funding on free cash flow — Q1 FY2027 revenue +39% to $387.1M and subscription ARR +32% to $1.57B, with the cloud transition ~89% complete, 82.9% non-GAAP gross margin and a real free-cash-flow engine ($253M in FY2026).

FY2026 Revenue

$1.32B

+48% YoY

Q1'27 Revenue

$387.1M

+39% YoY

Subscription ARR

$1.57B

+32% YoY (Cloud ARR +43%)

Non-GAAP Gross Margin

82.9%

vs 80.5% year-ago

Q1'27 Non-GAAP EPS

$0.16

Beat −$0.03 est. by $0.19

FY2026 Free Cash Flow

$253.3M

FCF margin 19% in Q1'27

FY2027 Rev Guidance

$1.638–1.648B

Raised after Q1 beat

Forward P/S

~7.5x

Down from ~8.5x in Q4'26

Quarterly Revenue — Trailing 4 Quarters

$309.9M

Q2 FY26

$350.2M

Q3 FY26

$377.7M

Q4 FY26

$387.1M

Q1 FY27

GROWTH & CATALYSTS

ARR compounding, cloud transition nearly done, and AI security as the next leg

48%

FY2026 Revenue Growth

$889M → $1.32B

$1.57B

Subscription ARR

+32% YoY; Cloud 89% of mix

$253M

FY2026 Free Cash Flow

From cash-burn to self-funding

Dec 5, 2025

Q3 FY2026 Earnings

Revenue $350.2M (+48%), subscription ARR momentum and improving margins; raised guidance, reinforcing the durable-growth narrative.

Mar 12, 2026

Q4 & FY2026 Results

FY revenue $1.32B (+48%), $253M free cash flow, near-breakeven net result — the year RBRK proved the model self-funds.

Jun 4, 2026

Q1 FY2027 Beat & Raise

Revenue $387.1M (+39%), sub ARR $1.57B, non-GAAP EPS $0.16 vs −$0.03 est.; raised full-year guide. Multiple firms lifted targets.

Jun 23, 2026

Cognizant AI-Security Alliance

Expanded AI-security partnership with Cognizant; RBRK leaning into agentic-AI data protection as the next growth vector.

Sep 8, 2026E

Q2 FY2027 Print

Next catalyst — guided to roughly $0.02 EPS; the test is whether ARR growth holds the low-30s while margins keep expanding.

Earnings & Signals

Forward Estimates, Surprises & Insider Activity

Forward Earnings Estimates

FY+1 EPS Consensus~$0.42 (FY2027E non-GAAP, est.; quarterly guide of $0.16 actual + $0.02/$0.10/$0.10)

FY+2 EPS Consensus~$0.85 (FY2028E non-GAAP, est. — roughly doubling on operating leverage)

PEG RatioN/M on GAAP (losses); on non-GAAP forward EPS the multiple is high but ARR-growth-adjusted it is reasonable for the cohort

Forward P/EVery high / N/M on FY2027E non-GAAP EPS (~$0.42) — the stock is valued on ~7.5x forward sales and FCF, not near-term EPS

EPS Revisions (90d)↑12 ↓1 (Strongly positive — estimates and price targets revised up broadly after the Q1 FY2027 beat-and-raise (Scotiabank, Cantor, Truist, KeyBanc, Baird, BMO all lifted targets))

Guidance AccuracyStrong — RBRK has beaten and raised in each of its recent public quarters (Q3'26, Q4'26, Q1'27), exceeding all guided metrics in Q1'27

Earnings Surprise Track Record

Q1 FY2027 Est: −$0.03 Act: +$0.16 Beat by $0.19; revenue $387.1M vs ~$373.6M est.

Q4 FY2026 Est: ~−$0.05 (est.) Act: Beat; revenue $377.7M vs ~$341-343M guide Revenue & ARR above guide

Q3 FY2026 Est: ~−$0.20 (est.) Act: Beat; revenue $350.2M (+48%) Record net-new ARR

Q2 FY2026 Est: ~−$0.35 (est.) Act: Beat; revenue $309.9M (+51%) Beat and raised

Beat Rate4 of 4 recent quarters beat on revenue; Q1 FY2027 was a large EPS beat (+$0.16 vs −$0.03)

Insider Activity (90 Days)

Net Buying/Selling$0 (no open-market insider purchases)

Sell/Buy RatioSells only — ~5.2M shares sold over 18 months, 0 buys

Cautious. The complete absence of open-market buying and a steady stream of insider sales (including the CEO's ~$46.5M Sept 2025 sale) is a soft negative on conviction. It is partly structural post-IPO diversification, but the one-way pattern combined with elevated short interest keeps the ownership signal neutral-to-negative even as operating results improve.

CEO Bipul Sinha sold 615,807 shares on Sep 12, 2025 at ~$75.63 (~$46.5M), leaving ~206,652 directly held shares; over the prior 5 years he recorded 2 sells and 0 buys.

Peer Comparison

Relative Valuation vs. Competitors

Company	P/E	EV/Rev	Rev Growth	Gross Margin
Rubrik	N/M	~7.5x	+39%	~83% (non-GAAP)
Commvault	~18x fwd	~3x	~+13%	~82%
CrowdStrike	~90x fwd	~20x	~+20-25%	~78-80%
Cohesity/Veeam	N/A	n/m	n/m	n/d

RBRK's ~7.5x forward EV/revenue sits above slower-growing Commvault (~3x EV/sales, ~13% growth) but well below security-platform comps like CrowdStrike (~20x). The premium to CVLT is justified by roughly 3x the growth rate (+39% vs ~13%) and a comparable ~82-83% gross-margin profile, while the discount to CRWD reflects RBRK's still-negative GAAP earnings and narrower platform. Private peers Cohesity (post-Veritas) and Veeam lack public multiples but are the real competitive pressure — the group controls ~70% of the data-protection market, with Rubrik leading Gartner's MQ for completeness of vision.

Valuation

Price Targets & Scenarios

Scenario	Price Target	Assumptions	Probability
Cyber-Resilience Compounder Re-Rates	$130	ARR growth holds in the low-30s, FCF margin expands toward the mid-20s, AI-security (agentic data protection) and the Cognizant/Cognizant-class alliances open a new TAM leg, and the market pays a premium SaaS multiple (~10x+ forward sales) for durable growth plus cash generation. Lands near the Street-high cluster.	40%
Steady Beat-and-Raise	$98	Revenue growth decelerates gracefully (high-20s to mid-30s), guidance keeps getting nudged up each quarter, FCF compounds, and the multiple holds around ~8–9x forward sales. Tracks the ~$95 consensus average target.	45%
Growth Deceleration / Multiple Compression	$58	Net-new ARR slows faster than expected, competition (Cohesity/Veritas, Veeam, Commvault) pressures pricing, GAAP losses and heavy insider selling weigh on sentiment, and a software de-rating compresses the multiple toward ~5x sales. Retests the post-deceleration support zone.	15%

Probability-Weighted Target: $105 (~45% upside vs $72.33)

$105

Weighted

Bull $13040%

Base $9845%

Bear $5815%

Analyst Consensus

Scotiabank

$95

Sector Outperform

Cantor Fitzgerald

$95

Overweight

Baird

$110

Outperform

KeyBanc

$88

Overweight

Effectively unanimous Strong Buy — roughly 25 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell across ~29 covering analysts. Average 12-mo target ~$95 (range ~$65–$130), implying ~30% upside from $72.33. Targets were broadly raised after the Q1 FY2027 beat-and-raise (Scotiabank to $95, Cantor to $95, Truist to $90, KeyBanc to $88, Baird to $110, Guggenheim $110).

Technical

Key Levels & Options Intelligence

S/RSupport & Resistance

52-Week High

$99.75

Near-Term Resistance

$91.31

Recent High / Pre-Earnings

$79.46

Current Price (Jun 29, 2026)

$72.33

200-Day Moving Avg

$68.06

50-Day Moving Avg

$57.59

Support / Recent Floor

$45.58

52-Week Low

$42.25

OptOptions & Sentiment

RSI (14-day): ~46–59 — neutral; neither overbought nor oversold after the post-earnings pullback from ~$79 to ~$72
Moving-Average Posture: Price above the 50-day (~$58) and 200-day (~$68); 50-day has crossed back above 200-day — constructive uptrend
Implied Volatility (30d): ~60–66% — moderately elevated for a growth-software name, well below speculative AI-hardware peers
Put/Call Ratio (Open Interest): ~0.64 — call-skewed, leans bullish (below 0.7)
Short Interest: ~14.2M shares · ~6–10% of float — elevated; a recurring bear talking point alongside insider selling
Beta: ~0.63 — lower than market; trades more on company execution than macro beta despite the growth profile
Shares Outstanding: ~206M shares; market cap ~$14.9B at $72.33
Drawdown from Peak: −27% from the $99.75 52-week high; consolidating above the 200-day after the Q1 print

Conviction Analysis

Systematic Conviction Score: 76/100 (High)

Analyst Alignment

30%

FCF Visibility

25%

Catalyst Clarity

20%

Valuation Safety

15%

Mgmt Quality

10%

Near-unanimous sell-side Buy ratings with broadly rising targets (analyst alignment 92), a genuine and growing free-cash-flow base after the FY2026 inflection (FCF visibility 80), and clear quarterly beat-and-raise catalysts (catalyst clarity 70) lift the weighted score to 76. A ~7.5x forward-sales multiple with no GAAP profit caps valuation safety (55), and persistent insider selling tempers management quality (70). Net: a High-conviction score that we hold at a Medium-High label given valuation and insider-selling overhangs.

Risk & Ownership

Risk Assessment & Insider Signals

!Risk Factors

Growth Deceleration: ARR growth has moderated from the low-50s to low-30s (+32% in Q1'27) and revenue growth from ~48% to ~39% as the law of large numbers and the maturing cloud transition (already 89% of sub ARR) bite. A SaaS name priced for durable 30%+ growth de-rates hard if net-new ARR slows faster than guided.
Competition — Cohesity/Veritas, Veeam, Commvault: The top players control ~70% of the data-protection market. Cohesity's Veritas acquisition created a scaled rival, Veeam is pushing up-market into large enterprise, and Commvault is a well-funded incumbent. Pricing pressure or share loss in core backup would slow ARR and compress margins.
Heavy Insider Selling: Insiders sold ~5.2M shares net over the trailing 18 months with zero open-market buys (CEO Bipul Sinha sold ~$46.5M in Sept 2025). Persistent one-way selling, while common post-IPO, is a recurring bear talking point and can cap sentiment even amid strong fundamentals.
GAAP Profitability & Stock-Based Compensation: Despite strong non-GAAP results and FCF, GAAP results remain near or below breakeven, heavily affected by stock-based compensation that dilutes shareholders. The gap between non-GAAP EPS and GAAP losses is a valuation risk if the market shifts to GAAP scrutiny.
Valuation / Multiple Compression: At ~7.5x forward sales with no GAAP profit, RBRK carries a growth premium. A broad software de-rating, a single soft ARR print, or a risk-off rotation could compress the multiple toward ~5x — roughly the level implied in the bear case — even without a fundamental break.
Elevated Short Interest & Volatility: Short interest sits around ~6–10% of float (~14M shares) and IV is moderately elevated (~60-66%). While beta is low (~0.63), the combination of a crowded short and event-driven moves around quarterly prints can drive sharp drawdowns on any guidance wobble.

OOwnership & Insider Signals

Institutional Ownership: Heavily institutionally owned, typical for a 2024 IPO that has matured into a large-cap. Index and growth funds dominate the register alongside the founder/VC base; ~206M shares outstanding for a ~$14.9B market cap.
Founder / CEO Stake: Co-founder & CEO Bipul Sinha remains a significant holder. He sold 615,807 shares in Sept 2025 at ~$75.63 (~$46.5M), retaining a sizable direct stake plus controlled vehicles; he retains outsized voting influence via the dual-class structure.
Insider Selling Trend: Over the trailing 18 months insiders sold ~5,201,537 shares net with 0 open-market buys — a one-directional pattern that bears cite even as fundamentals improve.
Short Interest: ~14.2M shares short, roughly 6–10% of float depending on source/date — elevated for a profitable-on-FCF software name and a notable overhang.
Strategic Partnerships: Expanding AI-security alliances (e.g., Cognizant) and a broad cloud-hyperscaler footprint underpin the platform narrative and de-risk distribution.
Index & Float Mechanics: Public float is large and liquid post-IPO maturation; the dual-class structure concentrates voting power with founders/early investors while economic ownership is broadly distributed.